Alberto Gonzales Wants to Tell the Truth?

First, some context. You don't need to watch the entire video to get the point.



The Wall Street Journal reports that former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales “said he is writing a book to set the record straight about his controversial tenure as a senior official in the Bush administration." Assuming he won't compose the shortest memoir ever, Gonzales should truthfully answer this question: Has he had an amazing recovery from amnesia, or did he repeatedly lie to Congress?

Blagojevich Makes Illinois a Sad State

Yesterday, disgraced Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich held a press conference to announce his selection of former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by President-elect Obama. The event ranged from sad to pathetic to embarrassing. U.S. Representative Bobby Rush, called to the podium to endorse Burris, chose to emphasize race as his reason for blessing the governor's choice. Rep. Rush could have chosen his words more carefully, particularly this quote: "So I applaud the governor for his decision, and I will ask you not to hang or lynch the appointee as you try to castigate the appointer."

In an interview after the press conference, veteran Illinois Congressman Danny Davis spoke well of Roland Burris. Davis noted that Blagojevich had offered him the position, but he declined.

Rod Blagojevich is a digusting figure – the latest manifestation of the worst of politics. In another circumstance, Roland Burris might be a good choice. Burris is a man who thinks ahead. He likely has a plan to deal with the Senate Democratic leadership's resounding rejection, but how will he deal with public disapproval? In a poll this morning on Chicago's WGN TV, 70% of the respondents were against the Senate accepting his appointment.

The Increasingly Depressing Legacy of George W. Bush and Richard B. Cheney

Yesterday, 31 Republican and 4 Democratic Senators detoured Detroit's $14 billion bridge loan. The lame-duck free-trader in the White House favored granting the money. Why do I think that George W. Bush is desperately trying to avoid the chiseled-granite marker of Herbert Hoover? Are you surprised that Dick Cheney has a clue?

Update: Add another link to the chain of evidence of duplicity and incompetence: Reuters reports on a Bush administration $100 billion failure in Iraq.

Edited 12-14-08 at 12:44 pm.

Objects in Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear

Visual acuity improves with hindsight. Still, it's hard to understand how American automobile manufacturers let their situation deteriorate to the point of crisis. The auto industry's woes are a replay of the collapse of the domestic steel industry in the 1980's. As John Hoeer documented in And the Wolf Finally Came – The Decline of the American Steel Industry, self-serving, short-sighted behavior by management and the union is bad for business. Both parties functionally ignored the obvious challenge that foreign steel manufacturers presented. By the time the steel industry and the United Steelworkers were done fighting over concessionary contracts, the game had changed.

More than 350,000 steel industry jobs have disappeared since 1977. Since the 1980's, most of the losses have been due to automated manufacturing processes that have multiplied productivity.

Profits for steel makers are closely tied to the numbers of autos sold. Automobile production costs reflect the price of steel. As domestic steel companies endured bankruptcy, reorganization, and fought for trade regulation, the Big 3 was there, watching from a front row seat.

Many Americans, including the Republican side of the U.S. Senate, believe that a $14 billion loan is not the best avenue to avoid a Detroit debacle. Some analysts believe otherwise. Parallels between the decline of domestic steel and auto companies don't necessarily translate into the same prescription for survival. Comparing the auto industry's plight to steel, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Len Boselovic recently wrote:

Even when the steel industry hit bottom, a few stable producers remained standing that had enough staying power to acquire their fallen foes, such as U.S. Steel's $1.3 billion acquisition of National Steel. Also, a major financial buyer emerged: financier Wilbur Ross, who lined up credit to purchase Bethlehem, LTV Steel and Weirton Steel.

The Big 3 have attracted some private capital in recent years, with Cerberus Capital Management acquiring a controlling stake in Chrysler last year for $7 billion. But there is no private source of capital to fund their way out of the recession now.

Boselovic interviewed Scott Paul, of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, who warned of far-reaching effects if General Motors, Chrysler, or Ford goes under:

The Washington, D.C.-based policy analyst said the auto industry has a much larger economic footprint than steel. Including dealers and parts suppliers, it employs more than 1.5 million workers, spends $156 billion annually on parts, materials and services and supports as many as one in 10 U.S. jobs. Car manufacturers are the biggest customers for steel, plastics, electronics and computer chips.

Today, the House of Representatives passed a bill to aid GM and Chrysler. Ford Motor Company does not face short-term liquidity problems, but supports loans to the other car companies.

The Senate will take up the issue on Thursday. Although President Bush favors the loan legislation, it's not likely to get to his desk in it's present form.

Bad News for Newspapers

The Associated Press (AP) wire service reported this evening that U.S. newspaper advertising sales revenue dropped 18% in the third quarter of 2008. A decline in print advertising has been a major factor in staff cuts at newspapers. Circulation numbers are down in most U.S. markets as more people read the news on the web. Internet ad revenues are a fraction of what papers used to receive for full-page spreads from department stores and automobile dealers.The AP is the world's largest news gathering operation, and is a cooperative owned by its member television, radio, and newspaper organizations. It serves approximately 1700 papers.

This week, the CNN News Summit in Atlanta will host 30 editors interested in learning more about CNN Wire, a new service looking to supplement, and possibly compete with the AP. They hope to convince cash-strapped newspapers that with AP subscription fees scheduled to rise in 2009, CNN's worldwide staff of 3,800 can provide news coverage at a lower cost.

Newspapers are facing a serious dilemma as they straddle the printing press and the rapidly moving world of Moore's Law. Distributing tons of paper is far more costly that moving electrons, but the savings realized by posting news on the internet is not enough to keep red ink off a paper's bottom line. They need a new business model, and until someone has a better idea, we need newspapers.

Black and Blue Friday Fatal for Wal-Mart Worker

We all have rules to live by. Some of mine might be called quirks. For instance, I like to vacation during the weeks before or after my destination's busy season. I'd rather work late at night than early in the morning. I cultivate at least six degrees of separation from Wal-Mart, and I never shop on a day named Black Friday. At the risk of being too empathetic, I resent the idea that a friend or family member would have to serve retail customers in the middle of the night. I understand that for doctors, nurses, bakers and the like, those hours are required, but retail? That's a crime. Until yesterday, my expression was figurative. From the New York Daily News:

A Wal-Mart worker died early Friday after an "out-of-control" mob of frenzied shoppers smashed through the Long Island store's front doors and trampled him, police said.

The Black Friday stampede plunged the Valley Stream outlet into chaos, knocking several employees to the ground and sending others scurrying atop vending machines to avoid the horde.

When the madness ended, 34-year-old Jdimytai Damour was dead and four shoppers, including a woman eight months pregnant, were injured.

The tragedy of Mr. Damour's death is magnified by the irony that many of those stampeding shoppers were looking for bargain gifts for a day called Christmas.

Another aspect of the Black Friday ritual is the hype that television news programs contribute. James Walcott captured that thought in his take on the blitz line:

For days preceding Black Friday the local and cable news outfits run item after item about "doorbuster sales," stoking the sense of anticipation and making it seem like family fun, reminiscent of that old game show where contestants raced through a store stocking their cart with anything they could pull from the shelves. [ … ]

The reporters later interview shoppers after they've snared their booty and it's all done with this air of frolic …

Further into Walcott's article, he reveals that he shares my empathy for those retail workers:

What you don't see in these Black Friday updates are interviews with the people who work in these mall chains, who have to show up at even more ungodly hours than do the shoppers in order to stock the shelves and prepare for the store openings. Openings that get nearer to the Thanksgiving meal each year, with some stores opening at midnight on Thanksgiving day and others at 4 AM on Black Friday, forcing workers to cut short their own holiday plans and put in exhausting zombie hours.

There's one gift that the stampeding shoppers couldn't find on Black Friday. It's an item that retail chains don't stock. Evidently, some don't even know that it exists. You would hope that its absence would create a demand. That gift is a moral compass.

A Story That Needs to End

If you read books, you likely have a preference for either fiction or non-fiction. If you're familiar with Michael Bechloss or Frederick Forsyth, you know which author's work will win you a bar bet about the U-2 affair. Both authors use meticulous research to fortify their writing, but Bechloss is a historian, and Forsyth a novelist. Contemporary media doesn't always allow such a clear distinction.

I recently heard of a government attempting to impose policies detrimental to their citizens. Drinking water would be placed at risk for chemical contamination. Workers could be exposed to increased levels of carcinogens. The activities of law-abiding citizens would be subject to surveillance, and various government agencies could share that information. Air pollution restrictions, including discharges of acids, mercury and lead would be loosened. To magnify the insult, unqualified bureaucrats would be given protected jobs in important positions. The docile population, distracted by financial problems, seemed oblivious to the damage being done.

That scenario could be fertile ground for the intrigue of a Frederick Forsyth thriller. The sad fact is that it's a true story that will be documented by someone like Michael Bechloss. That government is the lame duck administration of George W. Bush. There is no limit to the damage that he and his cronies are willing to inflict in the interest of their selfish ideology.

Transparency – Better Than Bipartisanship

ProPublica, “an independent, non-profit newsroom that produces investigative journalism in the public interest," reports that revised agenda pages have been posted on President-elect Obama's transition website, Change.gov. An excerpt from the technology page:

Create a Transparent and Connected Democracy

• Open Up Government to its Citizens: Use cutting-edge technologies to create a new level of transparency, accountability, and participation for America's citizens.

• Bring Government into the 21st Century: Use technology to reform government and improve the exchange of information between the federal government and citizens while ensuring the security of our networks. Appoint the nation's first Chief Technology Officer (CTO) to ensure the safety of our networks and lead an interagency effort, working with chief technology and chief information officers of each of the federal agencies, to ensure that they use best-in-class technologies and share best practices.

I believe that a commitment to transparency, accountability, and participation is more important than a pledge of bipartisanship. Will that be enough to temper the premature criticism from those on the left and right political fringes? Will citizens respond to this opportunity to help remake good government?

Howard Dean Gave Democrats a Future Edge

Sixteen years ago, Joel Arthur Barker created a modern definition of pioneers in his highly regarded book, Future Edge. He wrote that “pioneers take the risk, go out early, and make the new territory safe," and that paradigm pioneers “are the first to follow the rough pathway that paradigm shifters have uncovered."

Barack Obama's campaign, with his successful internet organizing and fund raising, 10 million address email list, and record setting get-out-the-vote effort, is a paradigm pioneer.

Howard Dean is a paradigm shifter. His failed presidential bid in 2004 was the first political campaign to make functional use of the internet. In 2005, he was elected chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Dean did not always follow party orthodoxy. He created a 50-state strategy, with the goal of organizing Democrats in every voting precinct in America. In 2006, some party leaders urged him to pull funds from traditional red states. They wanted to spend that money to increase the chances for gains in the midterm congressional elections. Howard Dean refused.

Dean's 2004 internet model was the rough pathway for Obama's internet campaign. Dean energized young voters using tools like Meetup.com. He was vehemently opposed to invading Iraq. Chairman Dean's 50-state strategy enabled Obama's GOTV success. When Barack Obama announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, Howard Dean was one of the first to endorse him.

Governor Dean's DNC chairmanship expires in January of 2009. He will not pursue another term. The paradigm shifter has redefined Democratic politics.

Edited 11-13-08 at 6:18 pm.

Rust Belt Bloggers Neighborhood Walk

A conversation about governance, media, business and politics only matters if it makes life better. Outside of your home, the best place to measure that is in your community.

Last month, at Podcamp Pittsburgh 3, a project was born in a Rust Belt Bloggers discussion session. The result was posted today. Bloggers photographed, shot videos, and wrote about their neighborhood. The links are here. There are about 20 communities to visit. Take a look, and if you're inspired, leave a comment.

GAO Lists Priorities for the Next President

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has issued its post-presidential election transition report. Operating under the purview of Congress, the GAO is a non-partisan agency that audits, analyzes, investigates and reports on programs, policies and operations of the federal government that involve spending taxpayer's dollars.

The 2009 transition report identifies 13 issues that it considers urgent:

• oversight of financial institutions and markets
• U.S. efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan
• protecting the homeland
• undisciplined defense spending
• improving the U.S. image abroad
• finalizing plans for the 2010 Census
• caring for service members
• preparing for public health emergencies
• revamping oversight of food safety
• restructuring the approach to surface transportation
• retirement of the Space Shuttle
• ensuring an effective transition to digital TV
• rebuilding military readiness

Because it is the federal government's independent auditor, the GAO's long term fiscal outlook should be of particular interest. From the report:

Over the next few decades, the nation's fiscal outlook will be shaped largely by demographics and health care costs. As the baby boom generation retires, federal spending on retirement and health programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will grow dramatically. A range of other federal fiscal commitments, some explicit and some representing implicit public expectations, also bind the nation's fiscal future. Absent policy change, a growing imbalance between expected federal spending and tax revenues will mean escalating and ultimately unsustainable federal deficits and debt.

That's not exactly news, but it does point to how important reform is. Medicare and Medicaid are likely to be the real revenue drainers. The entire GAO transition report is here.

A Web of Democracy

Expectations for President-elect Obama are framed, to a large degree, by the perceived performance of President Bush. The current president's low approval ratings hardly measure the level of opprobrium many voters feel toward George W. Bush. In recent months, acquaintances my age, many of whom rarely spoke about politics, were saying that they hadn't contributed to a candidate before, but … , or they never volunteered for a campaign before, but … . One qualifier was a version of the same perception; the country is headed in the wrong direction, or worse – because of Bush, America is headed into decline. The other qualifier was unanimous; Barack Obama offers hope, competence, and a renewed pride in our democracy. In other words, an antidote.

Young voters favored Obama by a lopsided margin. According to Future Majority, counting only those age 18-29, the President-elect tallied 455 electoral college votes to Sen. McCain's 57 (additionally, there was no data for 20 votes and 6 were tied). Those numbers continue an age group preference for Democratic presidential candidates that began in 1992. Their political memories contrast the presidency of George W. Bush to that of Bill Clinton. They typically reject the hot-button social issues that motivate many Republican voters. Obama was the natural choice for this race-blind, ethnically diverse generation.

The challenges facing the new president present huge opportunities. Leaders are measured by how they deal with big problems. Those problems also present great risk. The conflict in Afghanistan is likely to escalate. Pakistan, their nuclear-armed neighbor, is in crisis. The financial market mess is on everyone's front page. Barack Obama will need a long grace period, and we will need some good news.

The key to extending the electorate's patience is transparency and participation. As he did in his campaign, President-elect Obama is expected to use the web to inform and involve citizens. The first step in that transition is the new site, Change.gov.

Obama's campaign email database is estimated to exceed 10 million addresses. Over 125 million people voted in the presidential election. Participation creates accountability. Will citizens become the biggest special interest group in America?

The possibility is more than a maverick could imagine: everyone wired, everyone welcome.

Tonight is Your Answer

The Bradley effect has become a footnote in history. Future conversations will marvel about the Obama effect. At 11:00 pm, the major television networks declared that Barack Obama is the President-elect of the United States. The work of a long campaign is done. Now, the work begins.

Update: Forbes.com has posted the text of President-elect Obama's victory speech.

Rubbing Two Sticks Together – A Robocall Chronicle

While Barack Obama chooses YouTube and Web 2.0 to extend his reach, the McCain campaign is using a century-old technology to contact selected voters in Western Pennsylvania: the telephone.

I vote. I'm in the phone book. They found me.

The calls began on a Wednesday, near the end of October. John McCain, Sarah Palin and the Republican National Committee dispatched an unidentified male voice to let me know that “elitist Democrats say they understand us, but Barack Obama and Joe Biden say (in Biden's voice), ‘No coal plants here in America. Build them, if they're gonna build them over there …'."

On Thursday, Gov. Tom Ridge let me know that “if the Democrats win full control of government, they would want to give traditional civil rights to terrorists and talk unconditionally to dictators and state sponsors of terror. Barack Obama and his Democrat allies lack the experience and judgment to lead America."

Saturday brought Hank Williams, Jr., into my living room to warn me that “Elitist Democrats in Washington talk a lot about feeling the pain on ‘Main Street,' but it was their ties to greed and corruption on Wall Street that cost good, honest, American jobs. With values like these, we can't trust Barack Obama and his elitist liberal allies to represent us for the next 4 years." Hank virtually spit the last sentence out.

Silence for a week; then, the unidentified male was back to inform me that “there's more to Obama's record on the 2nd Amendment than he wants you to know. Barack Obama says he stands with gun owners, but his record says something different. Obama has supported a complete ban on handgun ownership, opposes concealed carry permits, and even voted to strip legal protection, freezing firearms for self-defense at home."

That Sunday, the RNC had Hillary Clinton interrupt my dinner. The recording, excised from the notorious 3:oo am phone call speech that she gave in March, 2008, went like this: “In the White House there is no time for speeches and on the job training. Senator McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the campaign, and Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference."

Just in time for dessert, the phone rang again. “I'm calling on behalf of John McCain," a female voice announced, “to tell you that coal jobs, which are so important to our community, are in jeopardy. Listen to Barack Obama's plans to bankrupt the coal industry." An Obama clip, out of context, plays: “So, if somebody wants to build a coal -powered plant they can. It's just that it will bankrupt them because they're (unintelligible) be charged a huge sum for all that, ah, greenhouse gas that's being emitted."

The most striking thing about all this inflammatory rhetoric, unsubstantiated assertions and out of context quotes, was the last call. Bankrupt is there twice. It's the word I remember, and associate with the campaign. That's called a takeaway. John McCain's robocalls, bankrupt.

More Change Than You Can Believe?

Veteran Democratic Party campaign strategist Joe Trippi has calculated that YouTube videos posted by the Obama campaign, which have amassed 14.5 million hours viewed, are the equivalent of $46-$47 million worth of paid advertising. Add the large volume of citizen-produced videos to that total and you can see why Trippi maintains that, regardless of the election outcome, Barack Obama marks the end of the television presidency.

Joe Trippi speculates that, if Obama wins, he might transfer the net support of my.barackobama.com to the White House. A social network numbering in the millions could be quickly mobilized to pressure special-interest allied Congress members who oppose popular legislative initiatives.

In comparison, Trippi says that the Republican Party's internet strategy is the equivalent of rubbing 2 sticks together.

Visionary ideas are often met with skepticism, but timing favors Joe Trippi. A financial crisis has Americans paying closer attention to Washington, D.C. The potential exists for a democratization of the federal government that citizens of all political parties might embrace. Key elements for such a shift would be wired access for the populace, and a newly-elected President Barack Obama's leadership ability. Will it happen? I don't know, but I do know that The Internet Changes Everything.

Joe Trippi's remarks are from a discussion today, hosted by Simon Rosenberg of NDN. It was broadcast on C-Span.

TARP Reaches From Pittsburgh to Cleveland

The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)-funded acquisition of Cleveland based National City Corporation by PNC Financial Services Group, Inc., of Pittsburgh, will be a template for government intervention in the credit crisis. Len Boselovic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Thomas Breckenridge of The Plain Dealer reported on the $5.6 billion deal in Sunday's P-G. The U.S. Treasury is supplying PNC with $7.7 billion to support the National City bailout. From the article:

Cleveland's economy is suffering because National City and other banks have restricted credit, said Raj Aggarwal, dean of the University of Akron's business school. He was stunned by the number of businesses who said they couldn't get credit.

"To me, that's exactly the kind of thing we don't want, as a nation and as a banking system," Mr. Aggarwal said.

In an interview with the business staff at The Plain Dealer, National City CEO Peter Raskind was clear that agreeing to the acquisition was a difficult, but necessary decision:

A National City doing business at less than full octane, you've got to question how helpful is that to the community? How helpful is that to employees? That's the frame of reference that I'm thinking about versus a strong and healthy and a perceived to be strong and healthy institution.

Reasonable people could disagree on this. That's why I made the comment that I did. And let me be clear about this, because I haven't actually said this, so I will: I feel terrible about this.

I mean, let's be clear. There's no ambiguity about that. I feel terrible about this. That's why I couldn't get through the employee meeting this morning without stopping every sentence or two. There's no debate about that.

Mr. Raskind isn't the only one that feels terrible about the deal. Quoting again from the Post-Gazette:

"Without regard to the economic and psychological impact on our community, Treasury made a coldly calculated decision to push National City off the cliff and use our tax dollars to help another bank scrape up the remains," said U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, a Cleveland Democrat who voted against the bailout.

U.S. Rep. Steve LaTourette, R-Cleveland, said Congress should have given Mr. Paulson and other regulators a blueprint on how to use the $700 billion instead of letting the Treasury secretary "play God."

"He has picked winners and losers," Mr. LaTourette said. The first winner he picked was Goldman Sachs, where he came from. ... The chickens have come home to roost in Cleveland in a horrible way."

The addition of National City offices will expand PNC operations into the Midwest, and make it the fifth largest bank in the U.S.

Can We Vote Already?

I just scanned the news headlines on several sites. The ad infinitum presidential campaign has become ad nauseam. Television and radio are worse. Barack Obama might be progressive, but the Republican campaign ads here in Western Pennsylvania are definitively regressive:

Obama is a socialist … palling around with terrorists … unethical … who will raise taxes on the middle class.

If Sen. Obama responds directly to these accusations, I fully expect the McCain camp to break out in a chorus of I'm rubber, you're glue. Everything you say bounces off of me and sticks to you.

Update, a day late: I'm concerned that regressive Republican tactics might garner Sen. McCain some votes at the cost of widening the polarization of the citizenry. On Wednesday, Glenn Greenwald noted that recent attacks by right-wing politicians have fallen flat, leaving the perpetrators to backtrack or apologize “for insulting liberals or impugning their patriotism."

Greenwald closes on this hopeful note:

We're gradually seeing not only the demise of the right-wing faction that has dominated the Republican Party for decades, but also the death of their ugliest and most toxic tactics. When numerous right-wing figures crawl across one's television set desperately denying and abjectly apologizing for attacks on the patriotism of Democrats and liberals, that is potent evidence that, at least as a matter of political rhetoric, a genuine sea-change is taking place.

On the Road … Until PodCamp Pittsburgh 3

This page will be on hiatus while I travel next week. In the meantime, please visit the links in the sidebar. I hope to see you at PodCamp Pittsburgh 3 on October 18 & 19, 2008.

The Mercurial McCain

"You're putting out stuff that is unbelievable George, and it's got to stop … and your ads have got to stop."
Sen. John McCain addressing Gov. George W. Bush at a Republican Presidential Primary Debate in 2000.

Senator McCain was so stung by accusations attributed to the Bush campaign that he admonished the Texas governor: "I don't know if you can understand this, George, but that really hurts. You should be ashamed. You should be ashamed."

During the primary campaign for the 2004 election, there was a rumor that John McCain might become John Kerry's running mate. The possibility of a unity ticket was appealing to some Democrats. They respected Sen. McCain and were anxious to end President Bush's partisan reign. Reportedly, McCain was not interested.

Four years later, Sen. John McCain is waging a campaign that should give pause to Americans of every political party.


Thanks to TPMtv

Trashing-Out the American Dream

The Inland Empire, a large area east of Los Angeles, bills itself as "The Heart of Southern California." For years, the region enjoyed vigorous growth supplemented by spillover development from neighboring Orange and Los Angeles counties. Today, growth is not the operative word in the Inland Empire. "Jingle mail" and "trashout" are more appropriate. Jingle mail is what a mortgage lender receives from homeowners who drop their house keys in an envelope, and abandon their home and mortgage payments. Some lenders try to salvage a portion of their investment by short-selling a foreclosed home. For instance, a 5 year old, 4 bedroom house in Beaumont, CA, is being offered at auction with bids opening at $10,000. The failures of creative financing have spawned desperate attempts at solutions.


Foreclosure Alley and the Trashout

John Plocher runs WSR, a real estate sales and management company in the Inland Empire. In the last few years, his company has grown from 3 employees to 73. A prime reason for WSR's growth is the trashout. KCET television correspondent Lisa Ling interviewed Mr. Plocher as one of his crews performed their sad, surreal task.

In Other News

In 2003, a substantial number of Americans opposed switching our military focus from Afghanistan to Iraq. They believed that those responsible for the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, were still in Afghanistan. The previous year, a senior adviser to President Bush had labeled such critical thinkers as the “reality-based community."

On September 9, 2008, The Wall Street Journal reported that as many as 4,500 U.S. troops will redeploy from Iraq to Afghanistan by January, 2009. According to the Journal's Yochi J. Dreazen:

The planned changes represent an attempt to preserve Iraq's recent gains while freeing up modest numbers of additional forces for Afghanistan. Senior U.S. commanders in Afghanistan have said they need at least three additional combat brigades, or 10,500 to 12,000 more troops. The plan being announced by Mr. Bush would meet less than half of that request.

Two weeks after the Journal report, ABC News investigative reporter Brian Ross wrote that:

US intelligence analysts are putting the finishing touches on a secret National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Afghanistan that reportedly describes the situation as “grim," but there are “no plans to declassify" any of it before the election, according to one US official familiar with the process.

[…]

Seth Jones, an expert on Afghanistan at the Rand Corporation think tank, called the situation in Afghanistan “dire."

“We are now at a tipping point, with about half of the country now penetrated by a range of Sunni militant groups including the Taliban and al Queida," Jones said. Jones said there is growing concern that Dutch and Canadian forces in Afghanistan would “call it quits."

“The US military would then need six, eight, maybe ten brigades but we just don't have that many," Jones said.

The eyes of America are on Congress as they attempt to deal with the growing crisis in the financial markets, but the economy is not our only priority issue. The situation in Afghanistan deserves more attention, in the news and in the presidential debates. That is reality.

The Lady or the Tiger, 2008

In a televised address on Wednesday evening, President Bush explained why the $700 billion bailout of major financial institutions had to be implemented quickly to preserve "America's overall economy." The President said that:

The government's top economic experts warn that, without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic and a distressing scenario would unfold.

He explained the administration's plan:

It would remove the risk posed by the troubled assets, including mortgage-backed securities, now clogging the financial system. This would free banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses.

Any rescue plan should also be designed to ensure that taxpayers are protected. It should welcome the participation of financial institutions, large and small. It should make certain that failed executives do not receive a windfall from your tax dollars.

[…]

First, the plan is big enough to solve a serious problem. Under our proposal, the federal government would put up to $700 billion taxpayer dollars on the line to purchase troubled assets that are clogging the financial system.

In the short term, this will free up banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses, and this will help our economy grow.

Second, as markets have lost confidence in mortgage-backed securities, their prices have dropped sharply, yet the value of many of these assets will likely be higher than their current price, because the vast majority of Americans will ultimately pay off their mortgages.

The government is the one institution with the patience and resources to buy these assets at their current low prices and hold them until markets return to normal.

And when that happens, money will flow back to the Treasury as these assets are sold, and we expect that much, if not all, of the tax dollars we invest will be paid back.

The final question is, what does this mean for your economic future? Well, the primary steps -- purpose of the steps I've outlined tonight is to safeguard the financial security of American workers, and families, and small businesses. The federal government also continues to enforce laws and regulations protecting your money.

Earlier Wednesday, a letter signed by 166 economists was sent to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate. The economists, who represent nearly every political viewpoint in the country, are urging hearings and contemplation. The text of their letter:

As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:

1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.

2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.

3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.

For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.

The Lady or the Tiger? Which door would you choose?

Senator McCain Requests Debate Delay

"A stage, an audience, a moderator, and at least one presidential candidate."
Robert Gibbs, Obama campaign spokesman, quoted in The Washington Post, on what to expect at Friday's scheduled debate.

Senator John McCain, who has missed voting on 412 bills in the current session of the Senate, wants to delay Friday's presidential debate and meet, along with Senator Obama, with leaders of both Houses of Congress to work on a solution to the financial crisis. Among the 64.1% of floor votes Sen. McCain missed were the F.I.S.A. Amendments Act, 2 energy development funding amendments, and a bill to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as increase education benefits for certain veterans who served after September 11, 2001 (G.I. Bill).

Senator Barack Obama, who missed 295 votes, many of them during a prolonged primary contest with Sen. Hillary Clinton, has rejected the proposal to delay the debate.

The Trail, A Daily Diary of Campaign 2008 in The Washington Post also reports that the Commission on Presidential Debates said that it is "moving forward with its plan for the first presidential debate at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, MS, this Friday, September 26," despite the McCain announcement. "We believe the public will be well served by having all of the debates go forward as scheduled," the Commission said.


Update: Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic reports that "A senior (McCain) campaign official says that McCain will NOT debate -- no matter what -- if Congress hasn't reached an agreement on a bailout package."

Chris Cillizza opines in The Washington Post that "The move is an obvious attempt by McCain and his campaign to paint the Arizona senator as above politics, willing to put aside his campaign for the good of the country."

Rip Van Washington

The financial crisis did not sneak up on us. As I noted in the last paragraph of Uncomfortably Numb, Gretchen Morgenson wrote a New York Times column in 2002 that concluded with an implicit warning: "Perhaps the housing bubble has helped consumers take the stock market's carnage so stoically. If so, what bubble will emerge to calm them when housing prices fall?"

In 2006, did Washington policymakers think that the foreclosure rate in Ohio was an aberration? Earlier this year, did they notice Matthew Yglesias' article, There Goes The Neighborhood (The Atlantic, January/February 2008), where he writes about Three Lakes, Florida?

It’s a pretty typical piece of aspirational America: two cars (or more) in every driveway. The driveways, that is, that aren’t empty. On a rainy day in November, two houses on the cul-de-sac had for sale signs out front (though it turns out more were in fact for sale). In front of another, a pile of furniture sat soaking in the downpour. According to data provided by RealtyTrac, a business that tracks foreclosures for real-estate professionals and investors, 10 of the 45 homes on the street received foreclosure filings in the third quarter of 2007 alone. (Such filings range from notices that a loan is in substantial default to notices of auction or repossession by the lender.) Three of the 10 had just been purchased—two in February, one in July. On average, the 10 homes had been owned for just 22 months before foreclosure.

Did everyone in Washington overlook Christopher B. Leinberger's quote in The Next Slum (The Atlantic, March 2008), that "Signs of physical and social disorder are spreading." He wasn't talking about the inner city. Mr. Leinberger was reporting on suburbs like "Windy Ridge, a recently built starter-home development seven miles Northwest of Charlotte, North Carolina," and "the Franklin Reserve neighborhood of Elk Grove California, south of Sacramento, (where) the houses are nicer than those at Windy Ridge -- many once sold for well over $500,000."

Why are these reports relevant to the current financial crisis? Are you confused about the whole mess? Yesterday, on NPR's Fresh Air, Terry Gross interviewed Gretchen Morgenson, a New York Times financial reporter and columnist, who won a Pulitzer Prize for her reporting on Wall Street. The interview lasts 39 minutes and is an excellent update on who, what, when, where, why, and what's probably next. Learn more and listen here.


Update: Roll Call reported this morning that the $700 billion mortgage bailout plan has been in the works for some time. Quoting White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto:

Fratto insisted that the plan was not slapped together and had been drawn up as a contingency over previous months and weeks by administration officials. He acknowledged lawmakers were getting only days to peruse it, but he said this should be enough.

In spite of what Fratto says, this effort was still late. A skeptic might wonder if the administration was hoping to avoid dealing with this until after the presidential election. Why wait until a week before the House is scheduled to adjourn for the year? Did they really think that passing a $700 billion Wall Street bailout was going to be easy?

Fact-Checking the Candidates

More than 20 years ago, the veteran columnist and author Phil Musick made a timely observation on his radio show. He believed that any politician who would just speak the truth would have a clear advantage with the voters.

Nowadays, "the truth" comes at us from many angles. It can be pre-packaged to reinforce beliefs, values and prejudices. It can be taken in or out of context. It comes at us 24/7. If you see truth that you don't like, you can sample another. Where are the credible journalists? Many of them have been here all the time, hidden in the media glut. Others are finding their way. If fact-based truth matters to you, there's good news.

Samuel Chamberlain, of the newspaper trade journal, Editor & Publisher, has written a special report about how fact-checking became prominent for the current presidential campaign. He quotes Bill Adair, Washington bureau chief of the St. Petersburg Times, about the genesis of Politifact:

We felt that we had done a disservice to voters [in 2000 and 2004] where we were passing along claims about candidates that were not true, and feeling that it was up to the voters to decide, he says. So, about a year ago, my editors came up with the idea of a Web site that would be a sort of daily journal and archive where voters could look things up and see if these claims were true.

Politifact, with it's features, the Truth-O-Meter and the Flip-O-Meter, has a concise purpose:

Each election year we hear this lament from our readers suffering the barrage of campaign rhetoric: “just gimme the truth.”

That’s the mission of PolitiFact. The St. Petersburg Times of Florida and Congressional Quarterly of Washington, D.C. – two of America’s most trusted, independent newsrooms – have created the site to help voters separate fact from falsehood in the 2008 presidential campaign.

Fact-Check Sites Are Not New.

In the 2004 vice-presidential debate, Dick Cheney referenced FactCheck.com, a misnomer for FactCheck.org, a pioneer veracity site. The FactCheck Wire provides "Faster than the Speed of Spin" updates in support of its mission:

We are a nonpartisan, nonprofit, "consumer advocate" for voters that aims to reduce the level of deception and confusion in U.S. politics. We monitor the factual accuracy of what is said by major U.S. political players in the form of TV ads, debates, speeches, interviews, and news releases. Our goal is to apply the best practices of both journalism and scholarship, and to increase public knowledge and understanding.

Other sites aiding voters are USA Today's Candidate Match Game, and The Washington Post's The Fact Checker blog.

Phil Musick might not have found a candidate that would just tell us the truth, but politicians that prevaricate in 2008 are being recorded and checked for their misstatements. I hope that voters aren't too cynical to notice.

Uncomfortably Numb Update: Feingold Fights

Yesterday, Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), and Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC) introduced The OLC Reporting Act of 2008.

From Sen. Feingold's press release:

This bill represents an important step toward curbing secret law and restoring the balance of power between the White House and Congress.

The OLC Reporting Act would:

• Require the Attorney General to notify Congress within 30 days when the Justice Department issues a legal opinion that:

◦concludes that a federal statute is unconstitutional;
◦relies on the “doctrine of constitutional avoidance,” a doctrine used by Yoo and his colleagues to justify strained interpretations of the law;
◦relies on other interpretive tools to avoid applying the law to the executive branch; or
◦decides that a federal law has been repealed by a later statute, when the later statute does not say so explicitly.

• Retain existing statutory protections for privileged information, while ensuring that Congress receives the information necessary to perform its legislative and oversight functions.

• Protect national security through special procedures for the submission of classified information.

With the current House session scheduled to end on September 26, and a lame duck session after the November election highly unlikely, Feingold and Miller's bill probably won't move until next year.

Uncomfortably Numb

Today, the news focused on the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the Federal Reserve's likely bailout of American International Group (AIG), and the ramifications for Wall Street and the world financial markets. Meanwhile, a Senate subcommittee was listening to recommendations for the next President to restore a constitutional balance of power.

"Restoring the Rule of Law" was the subject of testimony before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution. In his opening statement, Chairman Russ Feingold (D-WI), said he called the hearing to "tackle the wreckage that this President (Bush) will leave." Feingold began:

Tomorrow, September 17, is the 221st anniversary of the day in 1787 when 39 members of the Constitutional Convention signed the Constitution in Philadelphia. It is a sad fact as we approach that anniversary that for the past seven and a half years, and especially since 9/11, the Bush Administration has treated the Constitution and the rule of law with a disrespect never before seen in the history of this country. By now, the public can be excused for being almost numb to new revelations of government wrongdoing and overreaching. The catalogue is breathtaking, even when immensely complicated and far reaching programs and events are reduced to simple catch phrases: torture, Guantanamo, ignoring the Geneva Conventions, warrantless wiretapping, data mining, destruction of emails, U.S. Attorney firings, stonewalling of congressional oversight, abuse of the state secrets doctrine and executive privilege, secret abrogation of executive orders, signing statements. This is a shameful legacy that will haunt our country for years to come.

Mickey Edwards, Former Chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee, gave testimony that went beyond Presidential abuses of power to outline Congress's neglect of the checks and balances specified in the Constitution.

For most of the past eight years, and for many years before that, the Congress has failed to lived up to its assigned role as the principal representative of the people. Congress's constitutional role includes primary authority over spending priorities, tax policies, and the choice over whether or not to go to war. All of these decisions require the gathering of the information necessary to act judiciously. All of these decisions require a willingness to see to it that those decisions are complied with. But in recent years, instead of fulfilling this important trust, Congress has too often been silent.

[…]

Every member of Congress takes an oath of office to uphold and defend the Constitution. Republican members do not take an oath to defend a Republican president and Democratic members do not take an oath to defend a Democratic president. Once that oath of office is taken, loyalty to the Constitution takes primacy over loyalty to party or individual. But that is not what has happened in recent years.

Here is the challenge, stated as candidly as I can state it. Each year the presidency grows farther beyond the bounds the Constitution permits; each year the Congress fades farther into irrelevance. As it does, the voice of the people is silenced. This cannot be permitted to stand. The Congress is not without power. It can refuse to confirm people the President suggests for important offices; it can refuse to provide money for the carrying out of Executive Branch activities; it can use its subpoena power and its power to hold hearings and above all, it can use its power to write the laws of the country.

In closing, Mickey Edwards reminded Congress of its essential purpose:

Do not let it be said that what the Founders created, you have destroyed. Do not let it be said that on your watch, the Constitution of the United States became not the law of the land but a suggestion. You are not a parliament; you are a Congress – separate, independent, and equal. And because of that you are the principal means by which the people maintain control of their government. Defend that right, and that obligation, or you lose all purpose in holding these high offices. That is how you preserve and defend the rule of law in the United States.

It is easy to cite President George W. Bush for a litany of arrogant, misinformed abuses of power, if not outright violations of law. His abuse of the Constitution requires, at least, an investigation into articles of impeachment. That may be the most glaring failure of Congress, specifically the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

I applaud Senator Feingold for holding this hearing, and find it particularly notable that Mr. Edwards found it necessary to remind Congress of the purpose of its existence. If Congress had been doing its job the last several years, it would have seen the warning signs of the current financial crisis and acted to preempt it. I'll let you find the irony in that.

Defining Citizenship

"Are we so lost we have to be sold our own democratic right?"
Craig Ferguson

John McCain's campaign manager, former lobbyist Rick Davis, insists that "this election is not about issues."

Davis forgot to tell Craig Ferguson, who became a naturalized U.S. citizen a few months ago. In this video, Ferguson riffs about lipstick on a pig, show-business style campaign coverage, and your duty to be informed and vote.


Thanks to Fred F.

If you believe that the media (formerly called the news media), is often derelict in their coverage of the presidential race, you'll appreciate Glenn Greenwald's dissection of the vacuous lipstick on a pig story.

Seven Years Later: A WMD Report Card

The Partnership for a Secure America, a bipartisan group that includes former leaders of the 9/11 Commission, has released a report that states that "We are still dangerously vulnerable" to a WMD attack.

The independent group's evaluation of the U.S. Government's efforts to prevent WMD terrorism is an overall grade of C. The analysis covers the 3 years since the conclusion of the 9/11 Public Discourse Project.

WMD Report Card excerpt:

Here is what the U.S. Government must do next:

• Put someone in charge. There is a critical need for a top-level official with the authority to make government-wide decisions on funding and programs. Someone needs to be responsible for turning our resolve into results.

• Build the blueprint. We need a strategic plan that links all existing programs together, prioritizes funding across the Federal Government, and coordinates implementation. We can no longer afford to hope that our patchwork of programs and initiatives will naturally cohere into an effective whole.

• Strengthen international cooperation. The United States cannot be safe working alone. Terrorism does not respect borders. We must utilize multilateral institutions, regional organizations and bilateral ties. We must be firm in our goals, but flexible in our approach.
  

Compare those recommendations to the mission of the 5 year old Department of Homeland Security:

We will lead the unified national effort to secure America. We will prevent and deter terrorist attacks and protect against and respond to threats and hazards to the nation. We will ensure safe and secure borders, welcome lawful immigrants and visitors, and promote the free flow of commerce.

The WMD Report Card reveals a failure of leadership. After 7 years of Republican control of the security of the U.S., it is time for a change. I agree wholeheartedly with the Partnership for a Secure America; it is time to put someone in charge.

McCain Campaign Runs Huge Deficit

Less than 60 days before the Presidential election, the campaign of John McCain and Sarah Palin is running a huge integrity deficit. Reprising the swift-boating tactics Republican proxies used against John Kerry four years ago, McCain and Palin are repeatedly using lies in an attempt to discredit Senator Barack Obama.

Washington observers are wondering why McCain isn't more careful spending his credibility, particularly since his ally, President George W. Bush lost his passbook years ago.

Update: Conservative Andrew Sullivan has a more stern take on McCain's integrity deficit.

Four Women

Many have acknowledged Sen. Hillary Clinton's epic achievement of inspiring 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling. One could make a case for her being better qualified for the oval office than her husband was in 2000.

Decades before Sen. Clinton, 3 successful women made national political history. They were Sen. Margaret Chase Smith (R-ME), Rep. Shirley Chisholm (D-NY), and Rep. Barbara Jordan (D-TX).

In 1964, Sen. Chase Smith was the first woman to have her name placed in nomination for the U.S. Presidency at a major party's convention.
(Wikipedia)

Rep. Chisholm was the first black woman elected to Congress. In 1972, she became the first major party African-American candidate for President of the United States.
(Wikipedia)

Four years later, Rep. Jordan's keynote address to the Democratic National Convention defined eloquence for me. Her House Judiciary Committee Speech advocating the impeachment of President Richard Nixon is a lesson on a grave congressional process. Barbara Jordan was the first African-American woman to represent a southern state in the U.S. House. She was mentioned as a possible running mate to Jimmy Carter in 1976.
(Wikipedia)

Whether you agree with their politics or not, these women set a lofty standard for competence and qualifications for higher office. We can't afford to accept anything less in the upcoming election.

Post-Convention Wisdom

Was the volume of journalists covering the recent Democratic and Republican party conventions the best use of news gathering resources? If the objective was to provide citizens with information they need to cast an informed vote, they could have put their time to better use. That's the position of Jeff Jarvis, director of the interactive journalism program at the City University of New York's Graduate School of Journalism.

Jarvis recently wrote that "Politics is the opiate of journalism and it's time to go to rehab." Excerpt:

The attention given to the conventions and campaigns is symptomatic of a worse journalistic disease: we over-cover politics and under-cover the actions of our governments. We over-cover politicians and under-cover the lives and needs of citizens. . . .

Four years ago, the Poynter Institute's Al Tompkins asked PBS News anchor Jim Lehrer "why, in these days of few surprises at national conventions, it is still worthwhile to cover them." Lehrer's answer might be summed up in this paragraph from his response:

The political conventions are among the few "shared" national political events left. The others are the debates. Journalism organizations that say the conventions are not important are essentially saying the election of a president is not important. We are not in the business of making events, only in covering them.

More people watched the speeches by presidential candidates Obama and McCain, and vice presidential candidate Palin, than the finale of American Idol. Those numbers were swelled by low-information voters of both parties. The conventions told them who to cheer for, but many don't know enough about the candidates' policies to cast an informed vote.

The second of the "few 'shared' national political events" Jim Lehrer mentioned is the debates. It is crucial that the moderators elevate their game above the will you pledge tonight silliness that diminished the primary debates. If they don't, the candidates should assert themselves to make their positions clear.

Obama and McCain each have website pages that address many important issues. But, television is likely to guide more voters than the internet. Either way, I agree with Jeff Jarvis that journalists should invest more time covering the actions of our government. That would be one step towards making this the last most critical presidential election of our lifetime.