Bad News for Newspapers

The Associated Press (AP) wire service reported this evening that U.S. newspaper advertising sales revenue dropped 18% in the third quarter of 2008. A decline in print advertising has been a major factor in staff cuts at newspapers. Circulation numbers are down in most U.S. markets as more people read the news on the web. Internet ad revenues are a fraction of what papers used to receive for full-page spreads from department stores and automobile dealers.The AP is the world's largest news gathering operation, and is a cooperative owned by its member television, radio, and newspaper organizations. It serves approximately 1700 papers.

This week, the CNN News Summit in Atlanta will host 30 editors interested in learning more about CNN Wire, a new service looking to supplement, and possibly compete with the AP. They hope to convince cash-strapped newspapers that with AP subscription fees scheduled to rise in 2009, CNN's worldwide staff of 3,800 can provide news coverage at a lower cost.

Newspapers are facing a serious dilemma as they straddle the printing press and the rapidly moving world of Moore's Law. Distributing tons of paper is far more costly that moving electrons, but the savings realized by posting news on the internet is not enough to keep red ink off a paper's bottom line. They need a new business model, and until someone has a better idea, we need newspapers.

Howard Dean Gave Democrats a Future Edge

Sixteen years ago, Joel Arthur Barker created a modern definition of pioneers in his highly regarded book, Future Edge. He wrote that “pioneers take the risk, go out early, and make the new territory safe," and that paradigm pioneers “are the first to follow the rough pathway that paradigm shifters have uncovered."

Barack Obama's campaign, with his successful internet organizing and fund raising, 10 million address email list, and record setting get-out-the-vote effort, is a paradigm pioneer.

Howard Dean is a paradigm shifter. His failed presidential bid in 2004 was the first political campaign to make functional use of the internet. In 2005, he was elected chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Dean did not always follow party orthodoxy. He created a 50-state strategy, with the goal of organizing Democrats in every voting precinct in America. In 2006, some party leaders urged him to pull funds from traditional red states. They wanted to spend that money to increase the chances for gains in the midterm congressional elections. Howard Dean refused.

Dean's 2004 internet model was the rough pathway for Obama's internet campaign. Dean energized young voters using tools like Meetup.com. He was vehemently opposed to invading Iraq. Chairman Dean's 50-state strategy enabled Obama's GOTV success. When Barack Obama announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, Howard Dean was one of the first to endorse him.

Governor Dean's DNC chairmanship expires in January of 2009. He will not pursue another term. The paradigm shifter has redefined Democratic politics.

Edited 11-13-08 at 6:18 pm.

More Change Than You Can Believe?

Veteran Democratic Party campaign strategist Joe Trippi has calculated that YouTube videos posted by the Obama campaign, which have amassed 14.5 million hours viewed, are the equivalent of $46-$47 million worth of paid advertising. Add the large volume of citizen-produced videos to that total and you can see why Trippi maintains that, regardless of the election outcome, Barack Obama marks the end of the television presidency.

Joe Trippi speculates that, if Obama wins, he might transfer the net support of my.barackobama.com to the White House. A social network numbering in the millions could be quickly mobilized to pressure special-interest allied Congress members who oppose popular legislative initiatives.

In comparison, Trippi says that the Republican Party's internet strategy is the equivalent of rubbing 2 sticks together.

Visionary ideas are often met with skepticism, but timing favors Joe Trippi. A financial crisis has Americans paying closer attention to Washington, D.C. The potential exists for a democratization of the federal government that citizens of all political parties might embrace. Key elements for such a shift would be wired access for the populace, and a newly-elected President Barack Obama's leadership ability. Will it happen? I don't know, but I do know that The Internet Changes Everything.

Joe Trippi's remarks are from a discussion today, hosted by Simon Rosenberg of NDN. It was broadcast on C-Span.